Public comments on DOE’s 45Z Emissions Value Request Process, commonly referred to as a Provisional Emissions Rate (PER) are coming due, and it is critical that ethanol producers, feedstock suppliers, and stakeholders in clean fuel production weigh in. At first glance, the PER looks like administrative fine print. In reality, it is the engine that can determine whether 45Z delivers on its promise or falls short.The PER is how 45Z administrators intend to receive and evaluate emissions value submissions (or “unique Carbon Intensity scores”) from fuel producers. It sets the rules for whether plants can use real operational data and farmer-supplied feedstock scores, or whether many are pushed into a rigid default. If it is inflexible or disconnected from real-world data and timing, then the credit designed to reward innovation will end up undermining it.

This step cannot be overlooked.

Flexibility vs. Defaults
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Biofuel plants are unique. Each operates with its own mix of energy sources, process efficiencies, co-product streams, and supply chain realities. Transportation distances vary. Even the enzymes and chemical cocktails are different. Some have invested heavily in efficiency and carbon reduction strategies, while others are still on the path. Those differences add up, and they move CI scores in meaningful ways.

These details matter. If the PER locks producers into rigid defaults, much of that unique innovation will struggle to be recognized. A plant that has cut its CI by 5 or 10 points through efficiencies or upgrades could see the same result as a plant that has yet to implement those investments.

California’s LCFS pathway submission process can be the model here (in mechanics but not in timeliness). CARB does not give every ethanol plant the same CI. They allow producers to file facility-specific data, verified and auditable, to show the impact of their operations. That flexibility has driven measurable reductions and investment. 45Z needs the same design principle in its PER process.

Feedstocks and PERs
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At Incite.ag, we have been clear that one of the greatest levers for impacting biofuel CI is at the farm gate. Feedstock emissions drive one of the largest shares of ethanol CI. And unlike many pieces of the fuel supply chain, this is where some of the fastest, most cost-effective, and some of the most meaningful solutions to unlocking American energy dominance are occurring.

Farmers are planting cover crops. Reducing tillage. Using nitrogen stabilizers. Managing manure differently. These practices are not just for conservation; they show up on bottom lines and in enhanced carbon intensity scores.

The USDA’s new Feedstock Carbon Intensity Calculator (FD-CIC) now gives us a way to quantify that at the bushel level, in grams CO₂e per bushel. Plants can aggregate those bushels into a weighted average CI input.

The PER must account for feedstock carbon intensity. If DOE overlooks USDA’s scoring tools and defaults to a flat value for corn, soybeans, and sorghum, it undermines decades of innovation at the farm level. Every bushel would be treated the same, and every biofuel plant’s feedstock would be scored the same, severely limiting their ability to maximize CI reductions, invest in new technologies, and strengthen rural economies. 

This would not only undervalue farmer adoption of potentially novel revenue-producing conservation practices, it also removes the strongest lever plants have to cut emissions and unlock new market opportunities.

Timelines
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Even if a PER allows flexibility and feedstock integration, the system will not work if it runs too slowly or if plants are left exposed to timing risks beyond their control.

Biofuel plants’ strategic planning surrounds production schedules, tax credit monetization, and marketing windows. If PER review takes multiple months or more to approve a submission, the value of that credit is out of sync with the financial reality of running a plant. That leaves clean fuel producers guessing instead of planning.

That is why we will stress a 60-day review timeline. It is fast enough to keep credits aligned with operations but long enough for proper review.

But timeliness is not only about speed. Final 45Z guidance is already well overdue for delivery, leaving many producers at risk of missing the 2025 credit year through no fault of their own. Without protection, even early adopters could lose eligibility simply because rules could not be finalized in time. A safe harbor or grandfathering mechanism is essential to make sure producers can rely on earlier data or provisional submissions to preserve credit access.Without both a defined review timeline and safe harbor protection, the PER becomes a chokepoint instead of a bridge.

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‍The Essential Nature of PERs 

The PER is not an arbitrary detail. It is the mechanism that determines whether 45Z rewards real, measurable innovation, or whether it dissolves into ineffective recognition of efficiencies and delays.

The principles are simple:

• Establish bounded flexibility so plants can utilize real operational data.
  
• Ensure feedstocks are integrated so that grower-level improvements are recognized.
  
• Review and approve PERs on a timely basis so strategic decisions and credits can dovetail with natural operations.
  

This is not just administrative diligence. It is about ensuring the biofuel industry gets credit for the work it is already doing and the investments it will continue to make. Farmers are enhancing practices. Plants are installing new technologies. Grain originators are building programs to trace low-CI grain. The system must reflect and reward that reality on the ground.

That is why getting the PER right is not optional. It is the linchpin for the entire 45Z program.

As DOE accepts comments, we encourage all clean fuel producers, farmers, and stakeholders to submit thoughtful responses. This is the moment to make sure the PER reflects operational carbon intensity scores in the field. If we miss it, we risk letting one of the most important levers in 45Z become a hidden mechanism that undermines years of investment.

Preston Brown
President, Founder | Incite.ag
preston@incite.ag
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Incite.ag guides producers across the agricultural supply chain to Turn Emissions into Income. Incite.ag’s CI scoring system unlocks novel revenue streams and empowers producers to take control of their unique CI Scores. Learn more by hitting the link below or reach out to the team directly at success@incite.ag or 815.373.0177.